Entry tags:
Rules of Thumb
Aug 2014
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions - Gerd Gigerenzer - Penguin, 2014 (Kindle edition)
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I bought this book because Gigerenzer is one of the few people to criticise Daniel Kahneman's overrated theory of fast and slow thinking. He particularly objects to the assumption that fast, instinctive estimates (Kahneman's system 1) are inherently more error-prone than considered thought (system 2). Not so, says Gigerenzer - the two systems are not separate and we can and do use both together. He points out that quite simple heuristics - rules of thumb - of the sort used in system 1 thinking can often be more effective in finding workable solutions than considered thought; as he puts it, "it is often better to be roughly right than precisely wrong". He illustrates the effectiveness of heuristics in a wide range of fields from banking to healthcare to aircraft safety, and while he clearly has a few bees in his bonnet, I can't help thinking that he is right.
( Read more... )
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions - Gerd Gigerenzer - Penguin, 2014 (Kindle edition)
* * * *
I bought this book because Gigerenzer is one of the few people to criticise Daniel Kahneman's overrated theory of fast and slow thinking. He particularly objects to the assumption that fast, instinctive estimates (Kahneman's system 1) are inherently more error-prone than considered thought (system 2). Not so, says Gigerenzer - the two systems are not separate and we can and do use both together. He points out that quite simple heuristics - rules of thumb - of the sort used in system 1 thinking can often be more effective in finding workable solutions than considered thought; as he puts it, "it is often better to be roughly right than precisely wrong". He illustrates the effectiveness of heuristics in a wide range of fields from banking to healthcare to aircraft safety, and while he clearly has a few bees in his bonnet, I can't help thinking that he is right.
( Read more... )